LPL Research provides its Weekly Market Performance for the week of March 2, 2026. Capital markets faced a challenging start to March as geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, rising oil prices, and renewed inflation concerns pressured global equities and bonds. While U.S. stocks showed some signs of resilience with multiple daily gains and losses off session lows, both domestic and international markets ultimately declined amid energy supply fears and shifting rate‑cut expectations. Fixed income struggled alongside rising Treasury yields, and commodities — especially crude oil — surged on supply disruption risks. Gold failed to draw much of a haven bid, while the U.S. dollar advanced.

Stock Index Performance

S&P 500 Index Sectors

Fixed Income and Commodities

Source: LPL Research, Bloomberg 3/6/26 @3:04 p.m. ET
Disclosures: Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.

U.S. and International Equities

U.S. Equities: Equities opened the new month on a cautious note as investors took some risk off the table in response to geopolitical developments in the Middle East between the U.S. and Iran. After a fairly muted initial reaction and rising two out of five days this week, major equity averages succumbed to downside pressure as missile and drone strikes over the weekend continued through the workweek, with the main headwind for stocks broadly stemming from inflation concerns as crude oil prices spiked as a result of the conflict effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz. However, investors showed some relative resilience amid a few bright spots in the headlines. Highlights included Washington stating its intent to protect via naval escorts and provide insurance support to oil tankers in the Strait to aid the flow of oil shipments, as well as reports (albeit unverified) of Iran contacting U.S. authorities and President Trump’s late-week remarks that Iran wants to make a deal. An improving ISM services index and easing price pressures were also among bright spots, and a rise in Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets following a weaker than expected payrolls print did little to directionally sway markets.

On the earnings front, a few high-profile names delivered quarterly reports this week, including Target (TGT) offering an upbeat forecast, as well as chipmaker and index heavyweight Broadcom (AVGO) posting strong semiconductor revenue projections. Energy led gains, followed by technology despite volatile trading Thursday on reports that Washington is considering chip export restrictions.

International Equities: Following an all-time high last Friday, investors of European equities also pulled away from riskier pockets of the markets, leaving the STOXX 600 sharply lower as the energy-sensitive region digested the impact of rising oil prices. Market pricing for a 2026 rate hike from the European Central Bank (ECB) also dented investor sentiment. In corporate news, Dutch chipmaker ASM posted better than expected fourth quarter orders. 

Asian markets also closed lower, broadly weighed down by a stronger dollar in addition to the oil-driven headwind. Like much of the globe, energy supply jitters and geopolitical worries were the primary market drivers this week that left South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan sharply lower. Greater China was a relative outperformer, with shares receiving a boost from homegrown tech enthusiasm after the National People’s Congress (NPC) indicated more support for technological innovations and breakthroughs as well as easing concerns over the sector’s profitability and improved valuations after underperforming to start the year.

Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodity Markets

Fixed Income:Core bonds, measured by the Bloomberg Aggregate Index traded lower as U.S. Treasury yields moved higher over the last five days. 

Earlier this year, the decline in Treasury yields was driven in part by concerns that rapid AI adoption could slow economic growth through labor displacement. While those growth concerns have not gone away, the recent rise in inflation expectations has mostly reversed that yield move. Ongoing tensions in Iran continue to support higher oil prices, pushing near‑term inflation expectations higher; the two‑year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) breakeven has risen above 3% for the first time since last April. Those near‑term inflation concerns drove the two‑year Treasury yield to its highest level since last November. Fed rate‑cut expectations also continue to decline, with markets now pricing in fewer than two cuts later this year — down from expectations of three cuts just a few weeks ago. Higher inflation expectations are also pressuring global bond yields and reducing central bank easing expectations, with markets now pricing in more than a full rate hike from the European Central Bank later this year. Fed Governor Chris Waller noted Friday morning that if the oil shock proves temporary, the Fed will likely look through the recent rise in prices — suggesting markets may be overestimating the reduction in rate‑cut prospects.

Corporate credit markets remain stable, with investment‑grade and high‑yield spreads narrowing slightly this week. Spreads on CCC‑rated bonds have also tightened, indicating that bond‑market concerns remain centered on inflation rather than slowing economic growth. Taken together, rising inflation expectations and persistent artificial intelligence‑related growth concerns argue for continued caution and support our view that it is still too early to add rate exposure.

Commodities and Currencies:The broader commodities complex traded sharply higher this week, with the energy complex top of mind amid the conflict in Iran. Oil prices surged with the North American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices rallying 36% to around $91 per barrel and the London-traded global benchmark Brent crude adding 27% to over $92 per barrel. The oil spike was largely driven by the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz sparking concerns of a global energy crunch. The strait sees roughly 20% of the global oil supply pass through its waters, or roughly 20 million barrels of oil and an additional 5 million in product per day. Crude oil gains were exacerbated to close the week on reports of production cuts and potential export halts. Elsewhere, gold prices traded lower and silver also dropped as haven bids were very limited with strength in the dollar and forced deleveraging mostly to blame. The U.S. Dollar Index added over 1% on the week while foreign currencies with the worst net energy trade balances underperformed even further. 

Economic Weekly Roundup

Strikes Played a Partial Role in the Negative Print.Strikes at a major healthcare company impacted February’s payroll report released Friday. Even with last month's broad-based declines, total payrolls still grew roughly 34,000 year to date.

• February payrolls shrank 92,000 after a revised increase of 126,000 in January (down from the 130,000, which was previously reported).
• The unemployment rate rose to 4.44% from 4.32%. We expect this to rise in the coming months, adding concern for policy makers.
• Retailers and financial firms were the only two sectors that added to payrolls but the gains in the financial sector were unable to fully recover the 30,000 lost in January.
• Underlying conditions are stable. Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.0%, and the employment-population ratio, at 59.3%, changed little in February. These measures showed little change over the year.

Bottom Line: After lackluster job gains in 2025, the labor market is coming to a standstill. The three-month average is 6,000 net new jobs, and the six-month average is negative for the fourth time in five months. Looking ahead, we should expect the unemployment rate to rise. We don’t expect the Fed to take action sooner than June, but if the labor market deteriorates faster than expected, officials could cut rates on April 29.

The Week Ahead

The following economic data is slated for the week ahead:

• Monday: New York Fed One-Year Inflation Expectations (Feb)
• Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism (Feb), Existing Home Sales (Feb)
• Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications (Mar 6), Headline and Core CPI (Feb), Real Average Hourly and Weekly Earnings (Feb), Federal Budget Balance (Feb)
• Thursday: Trade Balance (Jan), Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 7), Continuing Claims (Feb 28), Housing Starts (Jan), Building Permits (Jan preliminary), Household Change in Net Worth (4Q)
• Friday: Personal Income and Spending (Jan), Real Personal Spending (Jan), Headline and Core PCE Price Index (Jan), Durable Goods Orders (Jan preliminary), Cap Goods Orders and Shipments (Jan preliminary), GDP (4Q second reading), Personal Consumption (4Q second reading), Core PCE Price Index (4Q second reading), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report (Mar preliminary), JOLTS Jobs Report (Jan)